Sherrod Brown
October 27, 2026 · Newsletter
Good news (and bad news) when it comes to early vote numbers
Hey everybody,
Let’s start with some undeniable good news. Late last week, Ohio crossed 1 million ballots cast — turnout is up 30% from this point in 2022. As one report put it, we’re “on track to set an all-time record for early voter turnout in a midterm election.”
Now, a lot of people are asking what this means for our campaign.
First of all, I’m a big believer that good things happen when more people participate in democracy. At a time when politics too often feels toxic and divisive, it’s heartening to see so many Ohioans choose to show up and exercise their right.
But let me fill you in on two ways our team is looking at these early vote numbers and how it’s shaping our strategy in the final days of this election.
These aren’t polls. These are real votes that will actually determine the outcome of this pivotal election. There are signs that Democrats represent a larger share of the early vote numbers than in 2024, when we fell short in our race for Senate. That’s a signal that the momentum that we’re feeling out there is being reflected in actual turnout.
That’s good, but it’s far from certain that it’ll be enough to win, or that this trend will even persist throughout the next 7 days. Even this record turnout only represents somewhere in the range of 20% of total ballots that will be cast in this election.Our job gets a whole lot easier when more people vote early — either in person or by turning in a mail-in ballot. Think of it this way: Our organizers are putting in incredible hours to get our message in front of every single voter we can before polls close on the 3rd.
Every ballot already cast represents a voter we don’t have to spend time and resources trying to reach. That allows us to better focus our extremely tight budgets. It lets our field operation expand efforts to get in touch with voters who might need extra help or an extra nudge to participate this year. It means we can extend our outreach to voters who might still be on the fence and who’ve been fed a steady diet of crypto-funded attack ads in the last month.
The bottom line is it’s never a bad sign that people are fired up to vote in this election. But as my campaign manager Patrick will tell you, the only thing we know for sure right now is: We have a lot more work to do, and not a lot of time left to do it.
Take Montgomery County, for instance. It’s one county where the number of mail-in ballots that have been returned is currently trailing the 2022 numbers. So our team on the ground is actively “chasing” ballots by making sure voters know how and where to turn them in.
It’s a part of the state I refuse to take for granted. In 2018, I won Montgomery County by a 12-point margin. Last time around, that margin was 7 points. A shift like that can be the difference. If we see numbers this year similar to 2018, Ohio is sending a Democrat back to the Senate. If we see numbers similar to 2024, we could fall short on Election Night.
We all expect this election to be close, but sometimes when we’re talking about million-dollar ad buys and record-breaking turnout, it’s easy to lose sight of what “close” means. In 2024, our election was decided by 33 votes per precinct. That margin is razor thin and this time, we expect it to be even closer. It comes down to all the little things adding up: Volunteer shifts. Calls made. Doors knocked.
Folks, this is the two-minute warning. It’s time to leave it all on the field. If you’ve got some time to volunteer, I’d be so grateful. If you can’t give your time, consider giving a few bucks to the cause of reaching key voters in the final days of this election.
In solidarity,
Sherrod Brown
Before you click away! Republican spending in Ohio has reached $320 million, and Sherrod Brown is counting on your support to keep up. We can’t outspend them, but we can outwork them.